Originally published on November 06, 2014 in Kantipur Daily Newspaper, Nepal.
NOV 06, 2014 — Conspiracy theories about the recently enacted Power Trade Agreement (PTA) between Nepal and India epitomise the pervasive political confusion of our times. It is not uncommon to find people blaming the Government of Nepal (GoN), among many others, for signing this ‘controversial’ PTA, which will allow electricity from Nepal to be sold to India. Even reputed newspapers have published opinion pieces by experts who claim that Nepal is gearing up to sell electricity to India despite being yet unable to meet its internal demand. To see beyond the veil of rumor and misconception, it is important to look at the figures of electricity trade between Nepal and India.
Lopsided trade
In the fiscal year 2013-14, the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), the GoN-owned energy utility, imported 1,072 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity from India. To put this in context, 1 kWh of electricity can light a 40 watt incandescent bulb for about 24 hours. In contrast, the NEA exported only 3.32 million kWh of electricity to India. That is, Nepal imported about 325 times more electricity from India than it exported. And the sad thing is, rather than exporting electricity to India, importing will increasingly become a trend. Compared to the previous year, this year’s import of electricity from India has increased by 35 percent whereas export has shrunk by 8 percent. The NEA has forecasted that it will have a surplus in the national grid, also known as the Integrated Nepal Power System (INPS), only in the year 2017. Even this projected surplus is dependent on the timely completion of the 456 megawatt (MW) run-of-river Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project.
Unlike storage plants, run-of-river plants do not have storage dams for stocking water; therefore, they are subject to seasonal flows in the river. Most hydroelectricity plants are implemented by installing more than one turbine-generator set. Installing multiple sets offers the advantage of running the plant at partial capacity in case one or more sets have to be shut down. For a turbine-generator to work efficiently, a minimum water flow must be available. During the dry season, from January to April, when water flow in Nepal’s rivers is at its minimum, the reduced water flow is adequate to only run a few turbine-generator sets. Therefore, in the dry season, the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project will only generate about one third of its stated capacity of 456MW. This holds true for most hydroelectricity plants in Nepal, as all of them are some variation of run-of-river type, except for one: the Kulekhani Storage Hydroelectricity Project, which comprises of the 60MW Kulekhani I and its 32MW cascade plant called Kulekhani II.
Export when wet, import when dry
Thus, Nepal will have a surplus, if ever, only in the wet season, from June to September and the shortage in the dry season looks to continue for many more years to come. Therefore, it is essential to sell the surplus to India during the wet season and buy electricity from India during the dry season. India, the third largest producer of electricity in the world, has an installed electricity generation capacity of 253 gigawatt (GW), which is about 325 times larger than Nepal’s installed capacity of 0.78GW. More importantly, India’s thermal and nuclear electricity plants, which have stable power outputs throughout the year, account for about 70 percent of its total electricity mix. Whereas Nepal’s run-of-river hydroelectricity plants, which have seasonal fluctuations in power output, account for about 82 percent of its total electricity mix. Therefore, it is extremely important that Nepal has a PTA, along with cross-border transmission links, with India for electricity trade between these countries to flourish.
So far, we have established that last year, Nepal imported over 300 times more electricity from India than we exported to them; the electricity shortage in the INPS and necessity to import electricity from India will not end any time soon; Nepal’s meager installed generation capacity is predominantly comprised of run-of-river hydropower plants, which can only generate about one-third of their rated power in the dry season; and India’s huge installed generation capacity is predominantly comprised of thermal and nuclear plants, which have stable power outputs throughout the year. Therefore, the PTA has opened the doors not just for exporting electricity to India but rather for importing more electricity from India to alleviate Nepal’s persistent shortage of electricity which has crippled its industry and the daily lives of its people.
However, the open trade in electricity with India has also brought new challenges. It comes as no surprise that Nepal is addicted to Indian oil, which runs its automobiles, industries, and marketplaces. Last year, Nepal’s import of fossil fuel and natural gas alone exceeded its total imports by 1.5 times. Even in a state of energy crisis, with loadshedding often up to 18 hours a day during the dry season, Nepal has failed to implement the mechanisms necessary to utilise and develop its huge potential in hydropower. Now, given the ease of satiating Nepal’s ever-growing thirst for energy by importing Indian electricity, will the country ever be able to expedite hydropower development at home? Or will it instead settle for a new addiction: an addiction to Indian electricity?
NOV 06, 2014 — Conspiracy theories about the recently enacted Power Trade Agreement (PTA) between Nepal and India epitomise the pervasive political confusion of our times. It is not uncommon to find people blaming the Government of Nepal (GoN), among many others, for signing this ‘controversial’ PTA, which will allow electricity from Nepal to be sold to India. Even reputed newspapers have published opinion pieces by experts who claim that Nepal is gearing up to sell electricity to India despite being yet unable to meet its internal demand. To see beyond the veil of rumor and misconception, it is important to look at the figures of electricity trade between Nepal and India.
In the fiscal year 2013-14, the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), the GoN-owned energy utility, imported 1,072 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity from India. To put this in context, 1 kWh of electricity can light a 40 watt incandescent bulb for about 24 hours. In contrast, the NEA exported only 3.32 million kWh of electricity to India. That is, Nepal imported about 325 times more electricity from India than it exported. And the sad thing is, rather than exporting electricity to India, importing will increasingly become a trend. Compared to the previous year, this year’s import of electricity from India has increased by 35 percent whereas export has shrunk by 8 percent. The NEA has forecasted that it will have a surplus in the national grid, also known as the Integrated Nepal Power System (INPS), only in the year 2017. Even this projected surplus is dependent on the timely completion of the 456 megawatt (MW) run-of-river Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project.
Unlike storage plants, run-of-river plants do not have storage dams for stocking water; therefore, they are subject to seasonal flows in the river. Most hydroelectricity plants are implemented by installing more than one turbine-generator set. Installing multiple sets offers the advantage of running the plant at partial capacity in case one or more sets have to be shut down. For a turbine-generator to work efficiently, a minimum water flow must be available. During the dry season, from January to April, when water flow in Nepal’s rivers is at its minimum, the reduced water flow is adequate to only run a few turbine-generator sets. Therefore, in the dry season, the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project will only generate about one third of its stated capacity of 456MW. This holds true for most hydroelectricity plants in Nepal, as all of them are some variation of run-of-river type, except for one: the Kulekhani Storage Hydroelectricity Project, which comprises of the 60MW Kulekhani I and its 32MW cascade plant called Kulekhani II.
Export when wet, import when dry
Thus, Nepal will have a surplus, if ever, only in the wet season, from June to September and the shortage in the dry season looks to continue for many more years to come. Therefore, it is essential to sell the surplus to India during the wet season and buy electricity from India during the dry season. India, the third largest producer of electricity in the world, has an installed electricity generation capacity of 253 gigawatt (GW), which is about 325 times larger than Nepal’s installed capacity of 0.78GW. More importantly, India’s thermal and nuclear electricity plants, which have stable power outputs throughout the year, account for about 70 percent of its total electricity mix. Whereas Nepal’s run-of-river hydroelectricity plants, which have seasonal fluctuations in power output, account for about 82 percent of its total electricity mix. Therefore, it is extremely important that Nepal has a PTA, along with cross-border transmission links, with India for electricity trade between these countries to flourish.
So far, we have established that last year, Nepal imported over 300 times more electricity from India than we exported to them; the electricity shortage in the INPS and necessity to import electricity from India will not end any time soon; Nepal’s meager installed generation capacity is predominantly comprised of run-of-river hydropower plants, which can only generate about one-third of their rated power in the dry season; and India’s huge installed generation capacity is predominantly comprised of thermal and nuclear plants, which have stable power outputs throughout the year. Therefore, the PTA has opened the doors not just for exporting electricity to India but rather for importing more electricity from India to alleviate Nepal’s persistent shortage of electricity which has crippled its industry and the daily lives of its people.
However, the open trade in electricity with India has also brought new challenges. It comes as no surprise that Nepal is addicted to Indian oil, which runs its automobiles, industries, and marketplaces. Last year, Nepal’s import of fossil fuel and natural gas alone exceeded its total imports by 1.5 times. Even in a state of energy crisis, with loadshedding often up to 18 hours a day during the dry season, Nepal has failed to implement the mechanisms necessary to utilise and develop its huge potential in hydropower. Now, given the ease of satiating Nepal’s ever-growing thirst for energy by importing Indian electricity, will the country ever be able to expedite hydropower development at home? Or will it instead settle for a new addiction: an addiction to Indian electricity?
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